Column: Where Super Region 4 stands
Skye Pournazari
Jon Dykstra Managing Editor The Maryville Forum
The MIAA has a new Super Region for the football playoffs this season and that new region includes the MIAA, GAC, RMAC and LSC.
With the selection show just three games away, and the first regional rankings coming out this week, its good to get a feel for what is happening beyond the MIAA.
First, a reminder, the first regional rankings are pointless. They are an alphabetical list of the top-10 teams, so they are less of a ranking and more of an … alphabet. Next week will be the interesting first real rankings.
But let’s take a conference-by-conference look at the playoff picture and what teams are worth keeping tabs on down the stretch.
MIAA
Most likely in: Northwest (7-1); Pittsburg State (6-2)
On the bubble: None
Work to do: None
The MIAA is widely considered the best league in Division-II and it is also the simplest in this exercise.
Northwest would need to lose two of its final three games down the stretch to Emporia State, Missouri Western and Pittsburg State to miss the playoffs. If they win all three, they will host a playoff game. If they go 2-1 in that stretch, they would make the field, but likely not host.
Pittsburg State has the same scenario that if they win out, they likely host due to their tremendous strength of schedule. One loss in their games with Central Missouri, Missouri Southern and Northwest likely keeps them in the field, but it isn’t a sure thing.
Every other team in the MIAA has at least four losses and is essentially eliminated from playoff contention.
GAC
Most likely in: Harding (8-0)
On the bubble: Southern Arkansas (6-2)
Work to do: Ouachita Baptist (5-3); Henderson State (5-3); East Central (5-3); Arkansas Tech (5-3)
Harding is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the nation and while their strength of schedule isn’t as good as a Northwest or Pittsburg State, undefeated is undefeated. The 2023 national champions would be the region’s one seed if the playoffs started today.
Southern Arkansas had the chance to put a stranglehold on a playoff spot with a win over Ouachita Baptist this past week, but instead got hammered 42-14. If the Muleriders win out, I think they still make the playoffs, but there is no room for error. They have a massive game at East Central this week followed by two games that they will be heavy favorites in. The rest of the bubble teams are big East Central fans this week.
I find it hard to believe that a 3-loss GAC team makes the field, but that group with work to do is hoping for chaos down the stretch.
RMAC
Most likely in: Western Colorado (8-0)
On the bubble: Colorado State-Pueblo (7-1); Chadron State (6-1)
Work to do: None
Western Colorado has a terrible strength of schedule thanks to Midwestern State as a non-conference opponent, so its undefeated record is a notch below the other undefeated teams in the region and even a 1-loss Northwest currently. The Mountaineers tough games are the next two weeks with Colorado State-Pueblo and Chadron State. Win out and they will be a top-3 seed, lose one and they likely make the playoffs, but don’t host, lose two and they likely don’t make it.
Colorado State-Pueblo and Chadron State have the same situations. Both lost to a mid-tier MIAA team with Pueblo losing to Fort Hays State and Chadron losing to Nebraska-Kearney.
A win for either over Western Colorado obviously is a huge boost, but if they both lose to the Mountaineers, then the regular-season finale — Chadron at Pueblo — is likely a play-in game.
Neither the Eagles or Thunderwolves can afford to slip up in their other game — Chadron at South Dakota School of Mines or Pueblo at Colorado School of Mines.
LSC
Most likely in: Central Washington (7-0)
On the bubble: UT Permian Basin (6-2); Western Oregon (5-1)
Work to do: Angelo State (6-2)
The Lone Star Conference is the most confusing one. Central Washington is the top of the heap currently and would likely be the two seed if the bracket was made right now. Their lone loss is to FCS powerhouse Montana and doesn’t factor into the playoff formula.
That leaves us with UT-Permian Basin, Western Oregon and Angelo State battling for probably one spot.
Western Oregon has a win over Permian Basin, but a bad loss to West Texas A&M. With Angelo State and Central Washington left on the schedule, they control their own destiny, but it will be a difficult road.
Permian Basin has a win over Angelo State, but a loss to Western Oregon, so the Falcons are big fans of Angelo in that game against Western Oregon so it is Angelo they are compared to and not Western Oregon. UTPB’s last three games are against teams a combined 4-19, so they should finish with two losses.
Angelo State needs to win out against Western Oregon, Central Washington and West Texas A&M, then they need UTPB to lose a shocker. It’d be surprising if Angelo State made the playoffs at this point.
Playoff Projection:
1 seed Harding: The Bisons will run the table and most likely have a better strength of schedule of anyone who runs the table.
2 seed Central Washington: They are huge Colorado Mesa (4-4) fans in these last three games because if the Mavericks are above .500, they pass Harding in strength of schedule and make the top seed a discussion at least.
3 seed Western Colorado: If they run the table, they get this seed. I’m not sure they will, but for now, we will say they will.
4 seed MIAA champion: The winner of Northwest and Pittsburg State will get to host. That’ll be a fantastic game, so I’ll skip picking it, cause either team gets this spot.
Unseeded teams: The rest of the field isn’t seeded because the NCAA is cheap and sends them to the places where they can avoid paying for flights. But here are my picks for the final four spots and where they’d go.
MIAA runner-up: The loser of the Northwest-Pittsburg State game will still make the playoffs and would be sent to top-seeded Harding to save flights for the NCAA since either could bus to Searcy, Arkansas.
Southern Arkansas: I think the Muleriders run the table and they’d be in the playoffs at that point. They would travel to either Maryville or Pittsburg in this case because that is also a bus ride.
RMAC runner-up: This is just the winner of the Chadron State and Colorado State-Pueblo game. Because of the poor way the NCAA does its bracketing, I predict either team will have to play Western Colorado in the first round. Chadron is within a bus trip of Northwest and Pueblo is within one of Pittsburg so that could make it interesting.
Texas-Permian Basin: I’m projecting Western Oregon to struggle down the stretch while UTPB handles business and takes this seed and because of the after mentioned NCAA cheapness and UTPB being 55 miles from the limit to bus to Western Colorado, we get another conference rematch with UTPB at Central Washington.
