Notebook: Potential for moving right
EDITORIAL MUG: Larry Anderson
The final outcome of Election 2024 is impossible to predict six months preliminary. The best anyone can do is look at where things are now.
November will be a three-way race between Democrat incumbent Joe Biden, former Chief Executive and Republican Donald Trump, and Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as potential spoiler. Kennedy should not be dismissed. He could do okay in the heavily liberal Northeast and with environmental groups.
Kennedy will pull votes from Biden, but no one knows how many or if they will be enough. Those uncomfortable with Biden and/or Trump may look to him as an alternative to the same old story. Traditionally, third party candidates have had to scramble for attention, funds and votes, but this is a Kennedy. The political pedigree is unmatched.
Polls are plentiful but don’t mean much this far out because too much can happen in the next six months. Another crisis skillfully or poorly handled could swing a lot of votes, especially from independents still looking. An upswing in the economy or a downturn in the high cost of energy could be persuasive too. Biden is in a leveraged position regarding these possibilities, and he knows it.
Sides have barely begun their media, mail and poster campaigns, but the teams have been raking in the dough and protecting their war chests. Money is always a big factor, but Trump knows how to spend and invest and when to target key geographic and demographic areas. He needs less money due to his profile, but I doubt there will be a shortage of it heading into autumn.
Biden’s casual attitude, temper flairs, and grandpappy appearance is a poor answer to Trump’s energy and enthusiasm. Biden can’t hide in the basement this time or expect to win by outspending his opponent. Joe has already had his $100,000 a plate fundraiser, but I doubt it convinced many that he is not an elitist. Trump is comfortable with his personal status.
Personal appearances have begun with Trump holding an obvious advantage in delivery. A recent appearance in Democratic New Jersey gathered an estimated 80,000 to 100,000 enthusiastic supporters for Trump while Biden barely attracted a few dozen when he showed up for ice cream in a different location. The fact is Trump exudes patriotism and optimism; Biden doesn’t.
Biden needs more than boring talking points to win, but I suspect that’s all he has. Trump is off-the-cuff on stage; Biden is all teleprompter and script. Trump seems real and engaged while Biden exudes awkwardness and uncertainty. Voters notice.
Trends are important at this stage of the game. I see two. One is key swing states are moving significantly to Trump. In Arizona Trump leads Biden 49 to 43 according to a current New York Times survey reported by Politico. In critical Georgia Trump leads 50 to 41; in Nevada it is Trump 51 and Biden 38. Pennsylvania is closer at 48 to 45. Wisconsin and Michigan are one-pointers with Trump ahead in Wisconsin and Biden ahead in Michigan. These gaps are significant in states Trump must have. These will likely tighten as the election approaches, but the gap may be too great for Biden to overcome.
The second trend is Trump’s expanding lead on key issues such as the overall economy, inflation, and the border. Biden has an edge regarding abortion, but he does poorly when he waffles between Israel and the Palestinians, as he tries to appear relevant and youthful, as he quotes phony statistics that are easily disproven.
If the election was in a week or so, I believe Trump would win the popular vote narrowly but the electoral vote significantly by collecting key states where Biden has declined. Also, Trump inspires loyalty while Biden is a fading political professional at the end of a lengthy career. This isn’t merely perception. This has to do with conduct, success and legacy added to how we are doing as a nation.
The unknown at this point is what shenanigans will the Democrats pull late in the season to keep their fella in office? Will non-citizens suddenly be allowed to vote in key districts where Democrats dominate? It’s already come up. Will a new pandemic suddenly appear in September, creating chaos and changing how we can vote? That’s worked too. Will the Democratic convention bring rebellion against failing Biden with another big name advanced as the solution to the horrible, awful Donald J. Trump? That’s not impossible either if the country continues to move right amid demographic upheaval.
Larry W. Anderson is a retired educator.
