Insight Into Infrastructure: Formula for carbon reduction

By Phil Cobb | March 11, 2023 |

President (Joe) Biden, with the support of many environmental groups, has set a goal of reducing greenhouse gases. Starting with 2005 levels, his goal is a 50 percent reduction by 2030. That’s just for starters. By 2035 the goal is for 100 percent carbon-free electricity and by 2050 he hopes to achieve net-zero carbon emissions economy-wide. Unfortunately, these goals are overly ambitious and are not achievable in the timeframe he wants with the tools we currently have available. Moreover, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles will further complicate the task by significantly increasing demand for electricity.

The path to a carbon-free future depends on three Ts: Technology, Transmission and Time.

Technology: Technology must be developed that makes renewable sources of electricity not only feasible but also affordable. Since 2000, about one-third of the coal generation capacity in the country has been retired. It’s projected that by 2030, another one-third will be retired — and possibly more. To replace this lost capacity with solar would require several million acres of solar panels. For reference, the state of Rhode Island covers 777,000 acres. That’s just for the panels — this does not include the land needed for batteries to make it a 24/7 source. In addition, to make this available 24/7, you would need significantly better batteries. For example, in 2021, the most extensive solar-powered battery system could serve Missouri for only a matter of minutes, which would not have kept the lights on during multi-day winter weather.

Transmission: Thousands of miles of high-voltage electric transmission lines would need to be upgraded and added. The best places to produce renewable electricity are in rural areas where relatively few people live. Massive additions will be required to get the energy to population centers in the cities. These lines cost well over $1 million per mile to build. Another limiting factor is the challenges in the supply chain. Material and labor are not available in the quantities needed. Another challenge is purchasing enough land for the right-of-way to build these lines. Would you welcome a large transmission line in your backyard knowing it won’t benefit you?

Time: This is the most important of the three Ts. Significant time will be needed to make this all possible. Time for technology to be developed and time for the massive construction to be completed. Time is also required for the development of more efficient homes and appliances. Every kilowatt we can save by efficiency helps both carbon reduction and family finances. Energy efficiency is less popular to talk about than renewable resources, but its potential impact is at least as big. Already electric co-ops in Missouri have helped cut the use of electricity equal to the amount used by all of the homes in a city the size of Springfield, Missouri.

The goals and timeline set by the president need to align with our current capabilities. 2030 is less than seven years away, and more Time is needed to develop the Technology and Transmission that would be required.

In the end, reality will always win out against dreams.

Jim Bagley has been the Chief Executive Officer of United Electric Cooperative and United Fiber since March 2017.