Counting the GOP delegates is going to be a fun exercise
Richard Fulton
Super Tuesday and March 5 are right around the corner and they will play an important role in determining who will be the candidates for president of the two parties. Lots of delegates are at stake.
Let’s focus on the Republican race as its result will be primarily impacted by what happens next week.
The Republicans dole out delegates on a formula.
Each state gets first 10 at large delegates: five delegates per senator. In addition they get three at-large for party leaders in the state for a total of 13.
Most delegates are distributed on the basis of the size of the state.
Each state gets three delegates for each Congressional District. That means the larger the state, the more House members, the more delegates.
Then they give “bonus” delegates based on how successful their state party was in electing Republicans to the Senate, House, and state legislatures in 2012. This means “Republican states” are favored with bonus delegates. For example, Kansas has 40 delegates while Minnesota, much larger, gets only 41.
Ted Cruz needs to do well Tuesday and Saturday. To do so, he needs the evangelical voters to recognize him as their candidate.
This didn’t happen enough in South Carolina. Tuesday sees a group of states with significant numbers of evangelical Republicans: Minnesota (41 delegates), Alaska (12), Tennessee (18), Georgia (21), Arkansas (15), and, to a lesser degree, Alabama (16) and Texas (155).
Texas is Cruz’s home state so he needs to do well there.
Saturday he needs evangelical heavy Kansas (40), Louisiana (15), and Kentucky (46). There are relatively few evangelical heavy states after Saturday, so if Cruz fails next week his hopes diminish.
Marco Rubio has emerged as the establishment candidate and next week will be crucial for him as well.
He is gaining endorsements and money from “establishment” Republican leaders. He must do well in states with more highly educated voters like Minnesota, Virginia (49), Vermont (16 ) Kansas, and Massachusetts (42 ).
Trouble is that Donald Trump has a base of supporters in some of the same states that should aide Cruz as well. Trump also shines in the poorer states with a history of racial resentment: Tennessee, Georgia, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Kentucky especially.
Trump has proven that a base of 30-35 percent of Republican voters support his candidacy regardless.
With three top candidates, Trump looks to “win” but will he win a majority of delegates or will the other two combined gain a majority?
John Kasich is betting on doing well in upper Midwestern states that choose delegates later in March and in April.
They are states with large numbers of delegates: Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania, and, not until June, California.
He hopes Cruz fades and he can challenge Rubio. Trouble is that the momentum for Trump, if not dulled next week, could be irresistible by then.
Watch the delegate count. Most of the at-large delegates will be cheering for a moderate and they don’t have to declare their preferences until late.
In short, if Cruz does not make significant headway in the next two weeks his candidacy may depend upon Rubio rallying the moderates and perhaps Kasich to do well later so they can combine for enough delegates to stop Trump from gaining the majority before the convention.
Without a clear majority, others will join together to stop him on the floor of the convention if they can.
And what a donnybrook that would be.
