100 wins for the 2016 Royals?

Phil Cobb

It’s finally that time of year.

Temperatures are rising, days are getting longer, PECOTA is picking the Kansas City Royals to finish last in the American League Central.

Ahh — the sure signs of Spring.

You would have thought that after the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) system missed the Royals record by 23 WINS in 2015, they would have learned a thing or two.

Guess not.

Here’s the thing.

PECOTA and all of the other preseason prediction methods rely on numbers.

And while baseball determines the numbers, the numbers don’t determine baseball.

One thing that definitely was determined is that the Royals won the World Series.

Here’s a formula for you:

Take the team that won the World Series, subtract a couple of late-season acquisitions (Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto), add a solid starting pitcher (Ian Kennedy), and a solid relief pitcher (Joakim Soria), factor in some priceless postseason experience, shake it all up, and what do you get?

Here’s a hint: You don’t get LAST PLACE in your division.

PECOTA predicts a 76-86 record for the Boys in Blue.

That’s simply absurd.

Good news for Royals fans — That’s four more wins than the formula predicted for the team a year ago.

So, 99 wins for the Blue Crew?

We’ll see.

Barring some catastrophic event, however, I’ll bet anybody anything that the Royals won’t finish last in their division.

I’m certainly not shoeing them in for a third consecutive World Series appearance, but finishing last, with pretty much the same team that won the World Series, would be pretty hard to do.

I would think they would have to be the favorite to win the AL Central simply because they did it last year, and, although I believe the division is improved, no other team has improved so much as to take that seat away from them.

But I’ll challenge you to find a projection system that places the Royals any higher than second.

I’ve seen the Cleveland Indians, and the Chicago White Sox both picked to win the AL Central in 2016.

Strangely enough, according to FanGraphs.com, the Indians will do so with just 85 wins (that’s 10 less than the Royals had in 2015), followed by the White Sox with 81.

They have the Royals in fourth with 79.

Let’s get something straight, I am not the most optimistic Royals fan you know.

That distinction clearly goes to Jerry Lutz.

For the record, Lutz has Danny Duffy winning 17 games this season.

He has Wade Davis winning the AL MVP, and Cy Young awards.

Okay, Jerry. I hope you’re right.

What’s more likely — he has the Royals winning two more World Series titles by 2022.

I try to be as realistic as a fan can be.

And honestly, I would not be surprised if the Royals regressed a bit from a year ago.

It won’t be easy to replicate the dynamic they had going for themselves in 2015.

But it’s clear that management has gone all in for the next two seasons.

And I’m assuming, as they did in 2015, they’ll make whatever moves are necessary mid-season to compete.

Last season, I predicted the Royals would win 92 games, and they won 95.

And while they remained relatively healthy, it’s not like they didn’t face some adversity.

Remember the bean-ball debacle, with starting pitcher Yordano Ventura and relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera being suspended?

That whole mess certainly cost the team some wins.

Starting pitcher Jason Vargas went down to an ACL injury, missing most of the season after Tommy John surgery.

That certainly didn’t help.

I mean, the best player on the team missed two months of the season.

However, it’s hard to say that cost the team wins, as they surprisingly performed very well in Alex Gordon’s absence from left field.

Third baseman Mike Moustakas missed multiple games through the loss of his mother.

Starting/relief pitcher Chris Young lost his father.

Starting pitcher Edinson Volquez lost his father during the World Series.

These unfortunate events, however, might have done as much to boost the team’s resolve, as they did to hinder its success.

Let’s not forget that, whether consciously or not, the team took its collective foot off the gas during an 11-17 month of September.

So, predicting a win total for 2016 is difficult.

The Royals are sure to face some kind of adversity this season, whether it be through injury, or any number of other possibilities.

I’d say there are a few players they can’t afford to lose, most notably catcher Salvador Perez.

I would also put closer Wade Davis, shortstop Alcides Escobar, first baseman Eric Hosmer, center fielder Lorenzo Cain, and Volquez in that category.

But I would have said — and did say — the same thing about Gordon a year ago.

That’s what’s great about a team like the Royals that does not rely solely on a few star players.

So I’ve kind of obligated myself to making a prediction.

And to be perfectly honest, I didn’t know what that would be when I started this observation.

George Brett, the undisputed best Royals’ player ever, said that the 2015 team was the best Royals team ever.

That means better than the 1977 team that won 102 games.

Granted this is a slightly different team to start 2016, but the core is there.

This core group has done everything they’ve set out to do.

They’ve won their division.

They’ve won two consecutive American League pennants.

They’ve gone to two consecutive World Series.

And they are the defending World Series champions.

What’s left to do?

Well, they haven’t won 100 games in a regular season.

And that’s exactly what they are going to do in 2016.

I’ll stop short of predicting another World Series appearance, or title, because there are just too many things that have to go right for that to happen.

But I’ll stand firm on 100 wins.

I mean, you have to have goals, right?