Groundhogs united on warm weather forecasts
Keith Srakocic
Groundhog Club co-handler John Griffiths holds Punxsutawney Phil during the annual celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016. The handlers say the furry rodent has failed to see his shadow, meaning he’s “predicted” an early spring. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
It was difficult to decipher the more important news Tuesday morning:
Clinton, Cruz win Iowa caucuses, or …
Punxsutawney Phil sees no shadow.
In Maryville and Nodaway County, the bigger story is probably the latter, at least as it pertains to the immediate prognosis for a quick end to cold weather.
As Ron Ploucha, a Groundhog Club co-handler of Phil’s on Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania, reportedly proclaimed shortly after 7:25 a.m. Tuesday, “There is no shadow to be cast! An early spring is my forecast!”
Ploucha added: “Take your jackets off, you are not going to need them,” but few in the assembled gathering heeded as the temperature hovered in the mid 20s.
But apparently the nation’s groundhogs are more in accord with what the future might hold, weatherwise, than were Iowans on the future candidates of their political parties as the 2016 presidential election cycle gets into full swing.
It seems groundhogs from all over — Staten Island Chuck from New York; General Beau Lee from Atlanta; Sir Walter Wally from Raleigh, North Carolina; Birmingham Bill from Alabama; and even Shubencadia Sam from up in Canada — all joined Punxsutawney Phil in lingering, shadowless, in their respective environments Tuesday, shamelessly indicating an early spring.
The last early spring predicted by the futuristic pigs was in 2013, when temperatures remained below normal deep into March.
But “trends” may be in the woodchucks’ court this time around as most of the Lower 48 has basked in above normal temperatures since December — the “snowzilla” that struck the East Coast Jan 22-24 being the primary exception.
Locally, temperatures are running some six to eight degrees above normal.
Since the earliest recorded observation in 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 102 times at the mid-point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. He has not seen it only 18 times before Tuesday. Nine “reports” are missing.
But how accurate is Phil, historically?
According to AccuWeather, he’s right-on some 80 percent of the time. The StormFax Almanac, however, pegs his reliability at just 39 percent.
“Take your jackets off,” maybe, but don’t put them in storage.
There haven’t been any woolly worm sightings yet.
Keith Srakocic
Groundhog Club co-handler Ron Ploucha, right, holds Punxsutawney Phil, as club vice-president Jeff Lundy, left, holds the scroll during the annual celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016. The handlers say the furry rodent has failed to see his shadow, meaning he’s “predicted” an early spring. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
