Trump’s difficult trip
Richard Fulton
We are in the middle of the first significant break in government legislative activity of the Trump presidency. August will see another, longer, break at the summer’s end.
Domestic issues are in a pause awaiting the return of Congress while President Trump pursues a very significant international trip.
Trump’s trip will set a base of expectations for his administration’s future foreign policy. His first stop in Poland is probably the easiest given its right wing government that agrees with Trump on several policy points.
He will also meet there with the heads of all the Baltic Seas States, so it is his first chance to set a policy tone on Russia given all these states are vulnerable to Russian pressures. Poland, for example, gets two-thirds of its gas from Russia.
His meeting with the influential G-20 advanced economic states in Germany will give him the opportunity to reset his image amongst these key countries. He’ll meet with eight or nine leaders of the most important of these states in individual conferences.
Key amongst these meetings will be his sit-down with Russian president Vladimir Putin. It is not clear what he will talk about with Putin, but many in America want him to a least confront Putin on Russia’s interference with the American election.
But there are other issues to confront Russia with as well. Russia’s annexation of portions of Ukraine still rankles the foreign policies of much of Europe. What are Russia’s ultimate goals? Is it attempting a creeping policy of infiltration of vulnerable states; is it planning to infiltrate territories of neighboring states?
Russia obviously has long-term ambitions in Europe; how far it is willing to go to envelope the interests of former Soviet states and neighboring countries is unclear. All this poses a danger to key American interests both economically and politically.
In addition, Russia has embraced Syria and its harsh leader, protecting him in the international political arena and aiding his regional ambitions. This is a real and present danger to American interests in the region.
Lastly, Trump will need to feel out Putin as to his aims in regards to North Korea. This will be difficult because it has not been clear what the specific policy track Trump wishes to take in regard to the aggressive behavior of that country.
The more Trump seems to hesitate in this regards the closer China and Russia become in their approaches to North Korea. These two nations are the only ones that have kept closer ties with North Korea and their attitudes towards sanctions and other pressures will be crucial in dealing with that otherwise isolated nation.
Putin, for his part will no doubt complain to Trump about the legislation now moving through Congress that would impose further sanctions upon Russia given its continued aggressive attitude in Ukraine.
Putin will bring up and challenge Trump on the placement of defensive missiles in Eastern Europe and the increased presence of NATO troops in the area.
President Trump’s overriding policy towards Russia seems to be one of trying to foster better relationships between the two countries. Given the issues described here, this might be a tough road to hoe.
The president must come out of this foreign policy trip with increased respect from the world leaders he meets if America’s foreign policy is to be a success in his administration. Posturing and ego-driven responses to this group will not auger well for America’s influence in the coming months and years.
And when he returns home he will find, of course, that domestic issues continue to confront Congress and his administration. Not the least of which is the simmering conflicts over America’s health care system.
Trump is learning that it is not easy being president.
Richard Fulton is an emeritus professor of political science.
