Finally…here at last
Richard Fulton
Can I hear three cheers for Tuesday? This election has been nasty, aided by a couple of billion dollars flooding the airwaves. At all levels of candidates issues have been meaningless as vitriol seems the only common denominator.
Still, it will all be decided come Tuesday. Unfortunately it seems clear that the mean spirited politics that has characterized the last decade or more seems inevitably to continue whoever wins both the presidency and the congress.
This means that the state elections take on increased meaning since this is where the rubber hits the road for much of our relationship with government. So pay attention to these offices.
Most attention, however, is focused on the presidency. Given the two major candidates, whoever wins will make a dramatic difference upon how government operates and upon the issues that impact our lives.
Who is more likely to win, then? Here’s how I see it.
While not exact, geography plays a large role on who wins the presidency. So does the urban/rural character of states. Let’s talk about geography first.
Donald Trump appears to be leading in Republican states that are concentrated in the South, Near West, and the Plains states. Hillary Clinton’s strength lies on the two coasts (especially in New England and the western coastal states).
Given this, we see the Trump states tend to be more heavily rural, small town states while Clinton’s strength is among states heavily urban.
Polls tell us that base support for Clinton comes from women and minorities and for Trump from white, male Americans. Things are more complex than this, but you get the point.
These are all generalizations, of course, since a state like Nevada, for example, is west but dominated by urban areas with strong minority populations.
Given this background what should we look for on election night? Eastern state results tend to come in earliest. Thus early indicators of strength will come from these states. We know New England will be heavily for Clinton so look to other states where the vote may be closer.
Watch states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, if all go to one candidate it may be all over.Georgia will be interesting to watch, it is a southern state with strong Republican habits but has seen a large growth of its urban areas, especially Atlanta.
As we move west the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota will say a lot about whether or not Clinton has momentum. Trump will need to take Ohio and Iowa to add to Florida in the early voting. He hopes for an upset in Wisconsin but can’t count on it.
Missouri use to be a bellwether state, split between the two parties, but has been Republican in recent decades. Nebraska is a Republican state, but unlike most states that give all electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, Nebraska awards a vote to each congressional district. Thus the urban Omaha district vote is up for grabs.
As the clock turns to the plains and western states Trump will pick up some momentum. Arizona will be interesting to watch since some Southwest states have become more Democratic with the growth of their Hispanic communities.
An important key to the election will be, as usual, the answer to the question “who will turn out to vote?” Recently, Democrats have been better at mobilizing their voters, but this is not a usual election. Will the Trump people really go to the polls in numbers? Will Clinton’s urban and minority base show up at the polls?
Early voting is very heavy this year. What affect will that have? Nobody knows.
So who will win? My prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win with somewhere between 320 to 340 electoral college votes (it takes 270 to win). You heard it here first—unless I’m wrong, then you can’t remember where you heard it.
