Royals still have a chance

Phil Cobb Glasses

I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say that if the Kansas City Royals win every one of their remaining games, that they will make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, that’s about what it would take.

I’ve been trying to do the math on it.

But, it’s impossible to know what the other teams in front and around them in the standings are going to do.

The Royals, as of Tuesday night’s 1-0 win over the Miami Marlins, stood at 65-60.

That’s a pretty good record, especially considering all the adversity — injuries, offensive slumps, pitching woes, etc. — the Royals have faced in 2016.

However, it’s far from good enough to make the playoffs, unless …

There are two potential routes to the playoffs for the Boys in Blue — win the Central as they did in 2015, or earn a Wild Card spot as they did in 2014.

Catching the Tribe seems to be the most unlikely of the two scenarios, at least that’s what I’ve been reading and hearing from those who should know.

I’m not so sure.

Let’s take a closer look.

KC was in third place in the American League Central Division as of Wednesday morning, one game behind the Detroit Tigers and 7.5 games behind the division-leading Cleveland Indians.

With 37 games to go, that seems like its insurmountable, until you look at the schedule.

Since going 7-19 through a disastrous month of July, the Royals, lead by a resurgent Danny Duffy, have suddenly made an about face and have reclaimed their role as the best team in baseball.

For the month of August, through Wednesday, KC is 16-5.

That’s a .762 winning percentage.

In comparison, the team with the best record in baseball — the Chicago Cubs — has a .640 winning percentage so far this season.

It’s hard to imagine that Kansas City can keep up with that pace.

But if they do, they will finish the season with a 93-69 record.

If Cleveland would go 19-19 the rest of the way, that would be good enough.

In that case, the Royals would enter the playoffs as the Central Division champs.

Of the remaining 37 games, 25 are against teams in the Central.

That’s to their advantage.

Six of those games are against the lowly Minnesota Twins.

The Royals are 11-2 versus Minnesota so far this year.

Seven of those games are against the Chicago White Sox.

The Royals are 9-3 versus Chicago this year.

Six of those games are against the Detroit Tigers.

The Royals are 9-4 versus the Tigers this season.

Six of those games are against the division-leading Cleveland Indians.

The Royals are 5-8 versus the Indians so far.

So the Royals have a .666 winning percentage against their division so far.

If they could just replicate that the rest of the way, that would give them a 90-72 record.

For that record to win the division, Cleveland would have to do no better than 17-21 the rest of the way.

That seems unlikely for a team that currently sits 20 games over .500.

KC could definitely help its own cause by sweeping each of the remaining two series versus the Tribe, but that’s unlikely, too.

So maybe the best route to the playoffs IS through the Wild Card game.

Let’s look at that scenario.

If KC could pull off the 90-72 finish we calculated earlier, I think they would earn the second berth.

They could potentially take the first.

Currently, Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, Toronto, and Boston are in front of the Royals in the Wild Card Race.

Either Boston, Toronto, or Baltimore will win the Eastern Division, so whichever one does, we’re not worried about that team.

For the purposes of this study, let’s say Boston wins the East, and Toronto lands in the first Wild Card slot.

That means we’re worried about Baltimore, Seattle, and Detroit, as teams in front of us.

The Houston Astros and New York Yankees are close behind us.

Those teams would have to do no better than the following the rest of the way for 90 wins to get us into the second berth.

Baltimore: 20-17; Seattle: 22-15; Detroit 23-14; Houston: 24-12; New York: 25-11.

If those teams finish with those records or worse, we’re in with 90 wins.

It seems impossible for a team that went 7-19 in July to end up in the playoffs.

I’ll admit that I had given up on the team after witnessing a lackluster July performance.

But impossible is what KC “do.”

Does the Rally Mantis have enough mojo?

Can Danny Duffy continue to pitch like the best pitcher in baseball?

Can the rest of the rotation continue to hold it together the way they have?

What will Jason Vargas be like when he presumably reenters the rotation and takes Dillon Gee’s spot?

What will Wade Davis be like when he comes back off the DL?

Can Alex Gordon continue to play like a hall-of-famer?

There are a lot of questions to be answered, but I’m going to say there’s a decent chance the Royals will at least be playing in Toronto in October.

Of course, if they win the rest of their games, none of this matters.