It’s gonna be a bumpy ride

Richard Fulton

Well, the game is on.

Finalizing what seemed to be inevitable, Hillary Clinton convincingly beat Bernie Sanders in Tuesday’s elections securing the Democrat nomination while Donald Trump has had the Republican nomination sewed up for weeks.

Herein some observations that I cannot resist making.

Polls, wrong again, had predicted a close Democrat race in California; yet Hillary won handily. On average the many polls had Clinton ahead of Sanders by about two points: she won by 13.

Beware of polls.

Did the early declaration by the press of her sufficient delegates to win the nomination suppress the voter turnout? Probably not significantly, given the enthusiasm of both campaign supporters.

To understand the results is to understand that the Clinton organization at the grass roots was better than Sanders’. Especially in the large cities of California, the minority support for Clinton was mobilized effectively.

As has been shown throughout the campaign, Sanders did well in caucus states where the enthusiasm of his supporters got them to the time-consuming processes of the caucus system. But overall, Clinton got more delegates, more votes, and more state victories from primary states.

Bernie Sanders put together. It has been the most effective challenge to the mainline Democrat candidates since the anti-Vietnam campaign of Eugene McCarthy. His campaign has nudged Clinton into supporting more vigorously many of themes of Sanders’ campaign.

Note the complimentary statements Clinton made in her victory speech about the Sanders’ campaign and some of its major objectives. She will need to convince those who supported Bernie with such vigor that she can deliver on some of those issues.

President Obama will be key to bringing the two sides together.

As for the Donald, his campaign has turned into a farce.

However, he seems to maintain a solid base of support, regardless of what he does or says. Stuck with him, the Republican establishment is being burned daily by Trump’s extemporaneous style of throwing out whatever comes to the top of his mind.

Will the endorsements of major Republican figures come back to bite them? One early straw in the wind was the bad loss of Rep. Renee Ellmers in North Carolina primary on Tuesday. She was endorsed by Trump, who also made a robocall tape for her.

Republicans running for office are scared to death that there will be a Clinton avalanche at the polls come November, burying them along with Trump.

Trump seems to be trying a bit to harness his spontaneity. After railing against his foes for using teleprompters, he has begun using them, as in his speech after the California primary.

Can he adapt to a conventional campaign though?

Can a zebra change his stripes?

Stay tuned.

Perhaps the most important problem for Trump, though, is not his misspoken ad-libs but his lack of on-the-ground organization. If we look at successful campaigns, what is most striking is that those candidates able to put together effective grass-roots organizations usually win.

Ask Bernie Sanders.

Though he had great enthusiasm amongst his supporters, his base organization could not match that of Hillary Clinton. This is her strength going into the general election.

It may be difficult for Trump to gain the money and people to put up a winning fight. He has less than enthusiastic support on Wall Street and amongst key contributors to Republican causes as well.

Trump is used to winning. If he is not winning, he bails.

What will happen if he begins to think he cannot win the presidency? Will his mental and physical energy levels bail?

We’ll have to watch and see.

Batten the hatches, though, this is going to be a bumpy ride.