Notebook: Don’t get comfortable
EDITORIAL MUG: Larry Anderson
“When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground.”
I wish I had said something that profound, but I got it from Craig Johnson, author of the Longmire series of novels, who got it from someone else. It resonates no matter the origin and has some bearing on this column.
Joe Biden, 81, is still with us of course, and that’s a good thing. No one wishes him ill no matter the condition of his presidency, but the fact remains he is the oldest person to hold the office and at times that is very evident. Voters looking for decisive leadership aren’t finding it, and it can be assumed his abilities will continue to decline in a second term. Cognizance doesn’t suddenly improve, does it? That’s not how it works.
The fact is Biden is not a man of action like George Washington or Theodore Roosevelt. He isn’t an intellectual like Jefferson or a military mind like Grant or Eisenhower. He isn’t a gifted diplomat like Carter or a congenial inspiration like Reagan. Nor is he a visionary like Wilson or even quietly competent like Coolidge. Joe Biden is just…there.
Early polling suggests Biden is disposable but let’s not be hasty.
I don’t put much stock in early polls unless they strongly indicate a trend reflective of discontent, and that’s what we are starting to see. The polls aren’t bouncing around. They are moving downward steadily and that will likely continue without some major event boosting the president’s profile. Right now Biden is failing in terms of voters’ confidence, an absolute necessity for an incumbent.
A December Rasmussen poll had Biden at 45% approval with 53% disapproval, and that was his strongest number. Gallup polled 39% approval and 59% disapproval. American Research Group had 37% approval and 57% disapproval. Other polls reflect negatively too, and any figure under 40% is critical. Desire for change is starting to dominate notably among Democrats and some assumed safe demographics.
It is possible Biden will fall to 32% or lower in coming weeks because the rock is rolling downhill. If that happens, it will be hard for the old man to recover no matter what happens. Popularity and confidence matter. Ronald Reagan won 49 states (even California) in 1984 because he had both; Biden has neither. Instead he reflects exhaustion and failed ideas. I think people are just tired of him and all he represents.
That leaves the Democrat party with a conundrum: What to do about Joe? Pull the plug in terms of support and finances? Promote in his place a slick like Gavin Newsom who is panting impatiently behind the scenes? Try to go with an unpopular option like Harris? Call forth Hillary Clinton from her political tomb? Michelle Obama as Barack’s proxy might be enticing.
At this point, it seems most likely the party will stick with Uncle Joe rather than acknowledge the failure everyone already sees or demonstrate disloyalty to a good soldier who will do whatever he is told. The solution may not be to promote Joe so much as turn the country against his rival, the horrible, awful Donald Trump whose polls are headed splendidly in the direction opposite of Biden’s.
Already we are seeing dire warnings from the left concerning what to expect if that so-named insurrectionist is elected after the Biden pause. It could spell the end of “our democracy” warn clucking alarmists, their brows furrowed ominously in phony concern. Perhaps you have noticed the only ones who refer to Trump as an insurrectionist are the Dems plotting his political demise. Everyone else knows a riot when they see it and have an understanding of context when given the opportunity to hear it.
Yup, that old Trump is a dictator in the making. He’s bent on revenge (justice?) for all those who wronged him. Why, he’s another Hitler! Furthermore, he’s a racist! And a capitalist! Did you know Trump was impeached twice? Oh, the horror, the horror!
So here we are with a long way to go but with Trump still standing, exuding purpose and confidence. He has reason to be optimistic.
Even so, I suggest no one get too comfortable. Don’t assume Uncle Joe is out of it just because his numbers are presently failing or because Trump’s personality is what it is. A fundamental rule is to never underestimate the opponent, especially one who appears weaker than he is. Pay attention and get to work instead.
Whatever you do, don’t assume you don’t need to vote when the time comes because Trump has it in the bag. That just isn’t so no matter how the polls read now.
Larry W. Anderson is a retired educator.
